STICK WITH THE NEW SAFETY STOCKS – BIGTECH & NFLX
Last week TPA told clients, “TPA would recommend that clients adhere to the long-term average relative performance as they manage their portfolios.” That meant to stick to sectors and stocks that have been outperformers over the past year. In this report, TPA gets more specific and focuses on TPA’s BIGTECH index plus NFLX. The BIGTECH Index is the largest 8 stocks in the NDX 100. They are AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA.
TPA would focus on MSFT, AMZN, FB, and GOOGL from the BIGTECH stocks plus NFLX. These stocks have been outperformers and they are not only somewhat insulated from the effects of the Pandemic, they may actually benefit from it.
Relative performance – the table below shows the major sector and BIGTECH performance over the past year, YTD, since the 3/23 low, over the past month and over the past week. There have been some head-fakes as discussions of more economically sensitive stocks and value stocks making a comeback, but why make this bet? TECH has been the winner in most periods and it averages 27% in all 5 periods, while the S&P500 average is only 16%. BIGTECH has done even better, averaging 45% or 17% better than the S&P1500 TECH Index.
Covid-19 – investors have gotten bullish over the idea that cases of Covid-19 have been declining, but as TPA discussed on Friday, it is plain to see that the decrease in testing is suspiciously coincident with the decline in new cases (charts below).
Big TECH stocks uptrends – the charts below of MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, and NFLX show that these stocks have not only outperformed the market and other TECH stocks, but they are also in very consistent uptrend patterns that forecast even higher prices
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